March 20: I have come to realize that I am fundamentally an optimist. I tend to default toward believing that things will work out for the better; if left to their own devices, people will do the right thing more often than not.
So it was with some hopefulness that I thought about the lifting of the rail blockades a few weeks back. After a protracted and wrenching stand-off, there appeared to be agreement between the First Nations, the Feds and the companies involved on a way to remove the blockades and move forward.
It seemed that the Feds were finally acknowledging the sovereignty of the First Nations and the need to have their agreement for any major works within their territories. This process seemed to be – and I hate to use the word – a significant step toward reconciliation. The First Nations seemed to accept that they needed to get their act together and come to a common position in negotiations with peers. It also seemed that there was the real possibility that they would come to the table as partners in resource development with major corporations, and finally secure access to sustainable income and a way to participate in the larger economy.
There remained issues at the Provincial level – this is Canada after all – but it seemed that the oil and gas market was shifting just enough that Alberta was being forced to confront the fact that their carbon-based economy couldn’t last forever.
Then COVID19 intervened. For the last few weeks, there has been news of nothing else. It has sucked all the air out of the room and become, as Cathal Kelly said in the Globe, a loud and constant buzzing in the back of your brain. Almost simultaneously, Saudi Arabia and Russia started a price war over oil. This, along with the forced shut down of significant parts of the economy due to the virus, has hammered the global economy. We may be on the brink of a global recession. Oil prices have plummeted to their lowest level in decades. Alberta crude, already in trouble at $32 a barrel, is today trading near $9.
So where does this litany of woe leave an optimist like me ? As an optimist, I have to assume that the Feds and the First Nations are at least continuing to think about hammering out an agreement around resource development and sovereignty (among other critical issues) while they also grapple with the virus. I am hopeful that the First Nations respect for the land will imbue future resource development with a more sustainable perspective. I hope that, as partners, those communities can begin to participate more fully and more equally with the rest of the country.
I also hope that forcing the Federal and Provincial governments to deal with the COVID19 virus and the plunging economy in a coordinated fashion will dispel some of the regional hostility that was apparent even a few weeks ago. There has to be an understanding that we are all in this together and that we are more alike than different. Perhaps taking some of the “politics” off the table will turn out to be a good thing.
As well, I am hopeful that the extremely low oil prices and the latest round of financial assistance this crisis has spawned will begin a transition away from oil extraction and toward a more sustainable future. The Feds are proposing to fund the clean-up of orphaned wells, of which there are many thousands across the country. Hopefully, Alberta will also find ways to provide employment for oil field workers in alternative energy environments.
Finally, on the global stage, perhaps the global viral epidemic has cost China enough “face” that they will be chastened for at least a while in their global ambitions. Given the interdependence of our economies and the battle against COVID 19, perhaps channels have now been opened that will allow us to see each other as residents of the world, rather than members of opposing camps.
There’s so much going on these days that it’s hard to keep track of the latest (correct) information. In the face of so much adversity, it’s often difficult to be optimistic and hopeful for our future, yet I try. If I squint at these problems just right, I begin to see opportunity. I can only hope that there are others out there who feel the same way, and that major beneficial change can come from our current struggle.